UFC 140 Las Vegas Betting Odds: Jon Jones vs Lyoto Machida

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

by BetOnline Sportsbook

UFC 140 Las Vegas Betting Odds: Jon Jones vs Lyoto Machida

UFC Sports betting players always love watching the newest phenom in any sport, and Jon Jones has made the UFC his own personal playground in 2011. He can put a cherry on top of arguably the best year in MMA history when he defends his light-heavyweight title against former champion Lyoto Machida, who poses an interesting threat to Jones, but the champion will be too much in the end.

What: UFC Betting
When: Saturday, December 10th, 9:00 PM ET (PPV card starts)
Where: Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON
Pick: Jon Jones -450

Why Bet On Jon Jones (14-1)

"Bones" is on the cusp of, possibly, the best year in MMA history as he rolled through Ryan Bader (then a top-10 fighter at 205 pounds) in February, he demolished Mauricio Rua in March to take the championship and then dominated Quinton Jackson in September. We won’t discuss the drama surrounding his former teammate Rashad Evans as the two have both battled injuries ahead of previous meetings; they’re going to end up in the octagon soon, regardless of whether Jones loses this match.

Right now, it’s all about trying to find a weakness in Jones’ game: he’s a tremendous wrestler who is also successful at stopping takedowns, although opponents rarely try to take him down. Jones is an unorthodox striker who isn’t afraid to try new Muay Thai skills in a fight, and while he has gotten plaudits for his wrestling and striking, he submitted Bader and Jackson easily and his Brazilian jiu-jitsu is improving. However, his biggest weapon may be an 84.5-inch reach, the largest in UFC history and simply put, opponents can’t get inside on Jones, which allows him to dictate the pace.

Some UFC betting players have pointed to Jones having a chin that hasn’t been tested, but that just means opponents can get close to him. Rua is one of the greatest strikers in MMA history and he couldn’t come close (although some think “Shogun” was hurt) and he made Jackson look silly. Machida’s movement could cause him trouble, but so far, Jones has been a machine and he’s only 24 years old.

Why Bet On Lyoto Machida (17-2)

Machida fell down the light-heavyweight ladder when he earned a controversial split decision over Rua, and then “Shogun” routed him in the rematch. Machida then lost a split decision of his own, and he should have been awarded the win over a confused Jackson, but we saw the old “Dragon” in April, when he ended Randy Couture’s career with a front kick to the face. Machida’s karate is based on striking that comes at you from all angles, and he’s a master at using leg sweeps to get you to the mat.

He also has some of the best takedown defense in the UFC, which is going to come in handy against a wrestler like Jones. If it does go to the ground, Machida is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, even though he has just two submissions under his belt and none since 2007. He is also a 3rd-degree black belt in Shotokan, which has been the basis for his brand of “Machida Karate”.

But Machida’s UFC betting chances really depend on one thing: his ability to get inside on Jones and turn this into a grimy, almost brawling sort of match. Machida usually prefers to stay on the outside and pick apart his opponents on the counter; he won’t be afforded that luxury against Jones and his incredible reach. However, if anyone can get inside on Jones, it’s the “Dragon”, who comes at you from different angles and he can hit you with power. Machida won’t take Jones with the intention to submit him, it’ll be with the intention to ground-and-pound.

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How It Will Play Out

The champion comes in as a -450 UFC betting favorite in Toronto over Machida, who is rated at +375, and while that may seem a bit one-sided, it’s because Jones has been an absolute monster this year. He is so well-rounded that you can’t find a weakness, other than his “weak” chin. This is still the only major question about Jones’ game. But it’s tough to test his chin if you can’t get inside an 84.5-inch reach and that may be Jones’ biggest weapon of all.

Machida’s takedown defense will be tested against Jones’ wrestling; no one has been able to stop “Bones” from taking the fight to the mat, where he delivers some of the most vicious ground-and-pound in the game, highlighted by elbows. But he has shown that he can submit you as well and manages to keep busy, meaning that Machida will be in a world of trouble if he goes down. It’ll be a tough fight, but you have to stick with Jon Jones to cap an amazing year in your Bet Online online betting book.

Bet Online Sportsbook UFC 140 Betting Pick: Jones

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air canada center - jon jones - lyoto machida - mauricio rua - quinton jackson - randy couture - rashad evans - ryan bader

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